Our side
MoneylineUNH to win
ours 47%
Projected score
29–28
UNH – ME
2026-11-21 · 1:00 PM
Harold Alfond Sports Stadium · Orono, ME
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Hampshire lead
19–5
· 24 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 rush offense
Maine Black Bears #105 run defense
Pass game
edge Maine Black Bears
72 ranks
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 pass offense
Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense
Run game
edge Maine Black Bears
149 ranks
Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #227 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #153 pass defense
New Hampshire Wildcats
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Maine Black Bears
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Hampshire Wildcats
LB
Trevor Barry
39 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#21 LB
DB
Jackson Stone
27 tkl · 1 PD
#76 DB
WR
Ja'Carree Kelly
14 rec · 211 yds · 1 TD
#110 WR
RB
Joquez Smith
208 rush yds · 3 TD
#82 RB
Maine Black Bears
DL
Chris Bacon
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#24 DL
LB
Sam Oppenheimer
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#17 LB
DL
Bryce Purnell
11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#161 DL
DL
Derek Berlitz
15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#184 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Hampshire offense vs Maine defense+1.9 pts
Maine offense vs New Hampshire defense-0.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).