← Matchups

Chicago State

· 1-2 · power -12.5 · #323

Our numberUTM -7.3 ~~no book has priced this game~~

UT Martin

· 1-2 · power -8.1 · #278

Final CHIC 7 · UTM 42 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineCHIC to win logged live now: UTM to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 66%

Our number: CHIC by 2.6 — CHIC to win.

Projected score 24–31 CHIC – UTM

2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM Hardy M. Graham Stadium · Martin, TN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

UT Martin Skyhawks Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Chicago State Cougars

DL Jayden Earley 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #6 DL

DL Lesroy Tittle 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #7 DL

DL Tehron Spencer 14 tkl · 2.0 TFL #38 DL

DL Armani Itote 11 tkl · 2.0 TFL #108 DL

UT Martin Skyhawks

P Max Zuluaga 8 punts · 51.4 yd avg #1 P

DB Trey Cotton 23 tkl · 1 INT #12 DB

DL Chris Wilson 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #78 DL

DB Jamal Mayers 12 tkl · 3 PD #73 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Chicago State Cougars	-12.5	-4.2	-8.3	#323
UT Martin Skyhawks	-8.1	-6.7	-1.4	#278

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Chicago State offense vs UT Martin defense-2.8 pts

UT Martin offense vs Chicago State defense+1.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.