Chicago State
Tarleton State
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
| Team | Power | Off | Def | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago State Cougars |
-12.5 | -4.2 | -8.3 | #323 |
| Tarleton State Texans |
+10.1 | +7.9 | +2.2 | #82 |
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.