← Matchups

Colgate

· 2-1 (2-0) · power -5.5 · #249

Our numberHARV -14.4 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Harvard

· power +5.6 · #115

Our side

MoneylineHARV to win ours 81%

Projected score 22–36 COLG – HARV

2026-10-03 · 7:00 PM Harvard Stadium · Cambridge, MA Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Harvard lead 3–2 · 5 meetings since 1952

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~19 ranks apart~~

Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense Harvard Crimson #70 run defense

Pass game even ~~44 ranks apart~~

Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense Harvard Crimson #68 pass defense

Run game edge Harvard Crimson ~~169 ranks~~

Harvard Crimson #31 rush offense Colgate Raiders #200 run defense

Pass game edge Harvard Crimson ~~200 ranks~~

Harvard Crimson #18 pass offense Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense

Colgate Raiders Balanced · 45% run Avg pace Harvard Crimson Balanced · 45% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Colgate Raiders

LB Christian Magliacano 20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #20 LB

RB Danny Shaban 395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec #15 RB

WR Matt Fogler 13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD #52 WR

DB Tymir Wynn 14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #160 DB

Harvard Crimson

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Colgate Raiders	-5.5	-4.3	-1.2	#249
Harvard Crimson	+5.6	+6.5	-0.8	#115

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Colgate offense vs Harvard defense-3.5 pts

Harvard offense vs Colgate defense+7.7 pts

Altitude · context only334 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.