← Matchups

Illinois State

· 3-0 · power +13.0 · #67
Our numberILST -14.7 no book has priced this game

Northern Iowa

· 1-1 · power -4.0 · #230
Our side
MoneylineILST to win ours 21%
Projected score 36–21 ILST – UNI
2026-09-26 · 5:00 PM UNI-Dome · Cedar Falls, IA Conference game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Northern Iowa lead 13–10 · 23 meetings since 1985
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Illinois State Redbirds 76 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #123 rush offense Northern Iowa Panthers #199 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois State Redbirds 122 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #79 pass offense Northern Iowa Panthers #201 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois State Redbirds 81 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #223 rush offense Illinois State Redbirds #142 run defense
Pass game even 40 ranks apart
Northern Iowa Panthers #174 pass offense Illinois State Redbirds #134 pass defense
Illinois State Redbirds Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Northern Iowa Panthers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois State Redbirds
DB Jack Oliver 6 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #47 DB
LB Tye Niekamp 14 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #64 LB
TE Alex Herrera 4 rec · 49 yds · 2 TD #43 TE
WR Dylan Lord 13 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD #134 WR
Northern Iowa Panthers
TE Brady McCullough 7 rec · 98 yds · 3 TD #11 TE
DB Calvin Jaworski 7 tkl · 1 INT #132 DB
LB John Powers 20 tkl #123 LB
LB Kolben Miller 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #151 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Illinois State Redbirds +13.0 +7.6 +5.4 #67
Northern Iowa Panthers -4.0 -2.5 -1.5 #230

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Illinois State offense vs Northern Iowa defense+9.1 pts
Northern Iowa offense vs Illinois State defense-7.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.