Our side
MoneylineILST to win
ours 31%
Projected score
34–26
ILST – SIU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Saluki Stadium · Carbondale, IL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Illinois lead
21–13–1
· 35 meetings since 1972
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
39 ranks apart
Illinois State Redbirds #123 rush offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
128 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #79 pass offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
140 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense
Illinois State Redbirds #142 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
89 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense
Illinois State Redbirds #134 pass defense
Illinois State Redbirds
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Southern Illinois Salukis
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois State Redbirds
DB
Jack Oliver
6 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#47 DB
LB
Tye Niekamp
14 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#64 LB
TE
Alex Herrera
4 rec · 49 yds · 2 TD
#43 TE
WR
Dylan Lord
13 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD
#134 WR
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL
Ibrahim Sanogo
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#15 DL
LB
Ben Fiegel
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL
#28 LB
LB
Andrew Behm
18 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#122 LB
WR
Kyle Thomas
6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
#218 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Illinois State offense vs Southern Illinois defense+8.2 pts
Southern Illinois offense vs Illinois State defense-2.1 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.