Our side
MoneylineILST to win
ours 32%
Projected score
36–28
ILST – YSU
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, OH
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Youngstown State lead
12–11
· 23 meetings since 1979
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
66 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #123 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
140 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #79 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Run game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
112 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
Illinois State Redbirds #142 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
100 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
Illinois State Redbirds #134 pass defense
Illinois State Redbirds
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois State Redbirds
DB
Jack Oliver
6 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#47 DB
LB
Tye Niekamp
14 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#64 LB
TE
Alex Herrera
4 rec · 49 yds · 2 TD
#43 TE
WR
Dylan Lord
13 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD
#134 WR
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Illinois State offense vs Youngstown State defense+12.9 pts
Youngstown State offense vs Illinois State defense+2.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 438 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.