Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win
ours 93%
Projected score
19–43
INST – SDAK
2026-10-03 · 3:00 PM
The DakotaDome · Vermillion, SD
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota lead
8–2
· 10 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
78 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense
South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game
edge Indiana State Sycamores
68 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense
South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
Run game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
198 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense
Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
222 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense
Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Indiana State Sycamores
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
South Dakota Coyotes
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Indiana State Sycamores
DL
Kaleb Harris
12 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#65 DL
DB
Nic Yatsko
25 tkl · 2 PD
#83 DB
WR
BJ Wuest
11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD
#156 WR
WR
Keshon Singleton
12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
#167 WR
South Dakota Coyotes
P
Brook Honore Jr.
9 punts · 47.1 yd avg
#5 P
RB
Charles Pierre Jr.
261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#27 RB
WR
Brayden White
13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD
#61 WR
K
Bohdie Ing
4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts
#15 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Indiana State offense vs South Dakota defense-3.9 pts
South Dakota offense vs Indiana State defense+15.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+22.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 547 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.