← Matchups

Youngstown State

· 2-1 · power +2.8 · #141
Our numberYSU -14.5 no book has priced this game

Indiana State

· 1-2 · power -9.4 · #288
Our side
MoneylineYSU to win ours 19%
Projected score 40–26 YSU – INST
2026-10-10 · 1:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Youngstown State lead 15–7 · 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Youngstown State Penguins 228 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game edge Youngstown State Penguins 215 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game even 32 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana State Sycamores 53 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg Indiana State Sycamores Balanced · 54% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR Lynn Wyche-El 18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD #16 WR
QB Beau Brungard 765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #10 QB
P Evan Anderson 5 punts · 47.0 yd avg #6 P
RB Jaden Gilbert 129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #44 RB
Indiana State Sycamores
DL Kaleb Harris 12 tkl · 3.5 TFL #65 DL
DB Nic Yatsko 25 tkl · 2 PD #83 DB
WR BJ Wuest 11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD #156 WR
WR Keshon Singleton 12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD #167 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Youngstown State Penguins +2.8 +8.1 -5.4 #141
Indiana State Sycamores -9.4 -2.5 -6.9 #288

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs Indiana State defense+15.0 pts
Indiana State offense vs Youngstown State defense+2.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-4.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.9

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).