Our side
MoneylineYSU to win
ours 19%
Projected score
40–26
YSU – INST
2026-10-10 · 1:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Youngstown State lead
15–7
· 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
228 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
215 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game
even
32 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
edge Indiana State Sycamores
53 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
Indiana State Sycamores
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
Indiana State Sycamores
DL
Kaleb Harris
12 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#65 DL
DB
Nic Yatsko
25 tkl · 2 PD
#83 DB
WR
BJ Wuest
11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD
#156 WR
WR
Keshon Singleton
12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
#167 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs Indiana State defense+15.0 pts
Indiana State offense vs Youngstown State defense+2.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-4.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).