Our side
MoneylineSIU to win
ours 24%
Projected score
36–24
SIU – INST
2026-11-07 · 6:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Illinois lead
22–14
· 36 meetings since 1972
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
256 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense
Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
204 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense
Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
59 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game
even
41 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Southern Illinois Salukis
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Indiana State Sycamores
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL
Ibrahim Sanogo
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#15 DL
LB
Ben Fiegel
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL
#28 LB
LB
Andrew Behm
18 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#122 LB
WR
Kyle Thomas
6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
#218 WR
Indiana State Sycamores
DL
Kaleb Harris
12 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#65 DL
DB
Nic Yatsko
25 tkl · 2 PD
#83 DB
WR
BJ Wuest
11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD
#156 WR
WR
Keshon Singleton
12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
#167 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern Illinois offense vs Indiana State defense+10.2 pts
Indiana State offense vs Southern Illinois defense-1.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.5
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.