← Matchups

Murray State

· 1-2 · power -21.1 · #382
Our numberINST -13.3 no book has priced this game

Indiana State

· 1-2 · power -9.4 · #288
Our side
MoneylineINST to win ours 79%
Projected score 21–35 MUR – INST
2026-11-14 · 1:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Murray State lead 4–3 · 7 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Murray State Racers 91 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game even 39 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana State Sycamores 97 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Indiana State Sycamores Balanced · 54% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL Jayden Walker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #67 DL
LB Klayton Ingram 22 tkl · 1.5 TFL #132 LB
RB Tyrell Campbell 213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #108 RB
DB Dylan Rowsey 18 tkl · 1 PD #377 DB
Indiana State Sycamores
DL Kaleb Harris 12 tkl · 3.5 TFL #65 DL
DB Nic Yatsko 25 tkl · 2 PD #83 DB
WR BJ Wuest 11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD #156 WR
WR Keshon Singleton 12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD #167 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Murray State Racers -21.1 -12.8 -8.3 #382
Indiana State Sycamores -9.4 -2.5 -6.9 #288

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Indiana State defense-5.9 pts
Indiana State offense vs Murray State defense+5.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+14.9

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).