Our side
MoneylineINST to win
ours 79%
Projected score
21–35
MUR – INST
2026-11-14 · 1:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Murray State lead
4–3
· 7 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Murray State Racers
91 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game
even
21 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game
even
39 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge Indiana State Sycamores
97 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Indiana State Sycamores
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
Indiana State Sycamores
DL
Kaleb Harris
12 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#65 DL
DB
Nic Yatsko
25 tkl · 2 PD
#83 DB
WR
BJ Wuest
11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD
#156 WR
WR
Keshon Singleton
12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD
#167 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Indiana State defense-5.9 pts
Indiana State offense vs Murray State defense+5.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+14.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).