← Matchups

Indiana State

· 1-2 · power -9.4 · #288
Our numberSDST -21.3 no book has priced this game

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Our side
MoneylineSDST to win ours 91%
Projected score 20–41 INST – SDST
2026-11-21 · 3:00 PM Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota State lead 10–3 · 13 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 191 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 73 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 151 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 138 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Indiana State Sycamores Balanced · 54% run Ball-control South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Indiana State Sycamores
DL Kaleb Harris 12 tkl · 3.5 TFL #65 DL
DB Nic Yatsko 25 tkl · 2 PD #83 DB
WR BJ Wuest 11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD #156 WR
WR Keshon Singleton 12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD #167 WR
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Indiana State Sycamores -9.4 -2.5 -6.9 #288
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Indiana State offense vs South Dakota State defense-2.4 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Indiana State defense+12.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 588 mi
Altitude · context only341 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.