Valparaiso
Murray State
Our number: VAL by 4.7 — VAL to win.
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
| Team | Power | Off | Def | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso Beacons |
-18.3 | -7.7 | -10.6 | #367 |
| Murray State Racers |
-21.1 | -12.8 | -8.3 | #382 |
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.