Our side
MoneylineSIU to win
ours 11%
Projected score
39–17
SIU – MUR
2026-09-26 · 7:00 PM
Roy Stewart Stadium · Murray, KY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southern Illinois lead
6–0
· 6 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
258 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
218 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Run game
even
5 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game
even
21 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Southern Illinois Salukis
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL
Ibrahim Sanogo
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#15 DL
LB
Ben Fiegel
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL
#28 LB
LB
Andrew Behm
18 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#122 LB
WR
Kyle Thomas
6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
#218 WR
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern Illinois offense vs Murray State defense+11.6 pts
Murray State offense vs Southern Illinois defense-12.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment-21.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).