Our side
MoneylineUND to win
ours 99%
Projected score
9–50
MUR – UND
2026-10-03 · 2:00 PM
Alerus Center · Grand Forks, ND
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Dakota lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
141 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
176 ranks
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
140 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
190 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P
Luke Silvernale
5 punts · 49.8 yd avg
#2 P
WR
Korey Tai
12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD
#30 WR
DB
Jonnie Wiltshire
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#89 DB
DL
Brody Thornton
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#114 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs North Dakota defense-14.7 pts
North Dakota offense vs Murray State defense+19.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+37.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 898 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.