Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win
ours 3%
Projected score
44–13
SDAK – MUR
2026-10-17 · 5:00 PM
Roy Stewart Stadium · Murray, KY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
200 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
236 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Run game
even
24 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game
even
6 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
South Dakota Coyotes
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota Coyotes
P
Brook Honore Jr.
9 punts · 47.1 yd avg
#5 P
RB
Charles Pierre Jr.
261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#27 RB
WR
Brayden White
13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD
#61 WR
K
Bohdie Ing
4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts
#15 K
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Dakota offense vs Murray State defense+16.4 pts
Murray State offense vs South Dakota defense-14.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-28.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 625 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.