← Matchups

Murray State

· 1-2 · power -21.1 · #382
Our numberSDST -32.3 no book has priced this game

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Our side
MoneylineSDST to win ours 98%
Projected score 12–44 MUR – SDST
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota State lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 137 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 135 ranks
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 153 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 152 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL Jayden Walker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #67 DL
LB Klayton Ingram 22 tkl · 1.5 TFL #132 LB
RB Tyrell Campbell 213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #108 RB
DB Dylan Rowsey 18 tkl · 1 PD #377 DB
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Murray State Racers -21.1 -12.8 -8.3 #382
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs South Dakota State defense-12.7 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Murray State defense+14.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+30.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 693 mi
Altitude · context only342 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.