Our side
MoneylineSDST to win
ours 98%
Projected score
12–44
MUR – SDST
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
137 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
135 ranks
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
153 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
152 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K
Tristan Alvano
6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts
#4 K
P
Max Pelham
10 punts · 47.9 yd avg
#3 P
TE
Greyton Gannon
5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD
#36 TE
WR
Grahm Goering
13 rec · 254 yds
#127 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs South Dakota State defense-12.7 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Murray State defense+14.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+30.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 693 mi
Altitude · context only342 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.