Our side
MoneylineYSU to win
ours 6%
Projected score
43–18
YSU – MUR
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM
Roy Stewart Stadium · Murray, KY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Youngstown State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
230 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
229 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Run game
even
22 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
even
9 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs Murray State defense+16.4 pts
Murray State offense vs Youngstown State defense-7.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-21.9
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 516 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.