← Matchups

St. Thomas-Minnesota

· 2-1 · power -2.0 · #198
Our numberUND -18.0 no book has priced this game

North Dakota

· 3-0 · power +12.7 · #70
Final STMN 26 · UND 62 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUND to win logged ours 84%

Our number: UND by 16.8 — UND to win.

Projected score 22–40 STMN – UND
2026-09-05 · 4:00 PM Alerus Center · Grand Forks, ND Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 120 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game even 4 ranks apart
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
Run game edge St. Thomas Tommies 106 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 168 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
St. Thomas Tommies Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg North Dakota Fighting Hawks Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
St. Thomas Tommies
DB Peyton Himley 14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #85 DB
LB Malachi Boadi-Aboagye 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #60 LB
WR Pierce McCrary 13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD #142 WR
DL Evan Tyler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #282 DL
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P Luke Silvernale 5 punts · 49.8 yd avg #2 P
WR Korey Tai 12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD #30 WR
DB Jonnie Wiltshire 9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #89 DB
DL Brody Thornton 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #114 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
St. Thomas Tommies -2.0 +1.0 -3.0 #198
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +12.7 +10.8 +1.9 #70

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs North Dakota defense-0.9 pts
North Dakota offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense+13.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.