← Matchups

North Dakota

· 3-0 · power +12.7 · #70
Our numberUND -14.4 no book has priced this game

Northern Iowa

· 1-1 · power -4.0 · #230
Our side
MoneylineUND to win ours 19%
Projected score 37–23 UND – UNI
2026-10-10 · 5:00 PM UNI-Dome · Cedar Falls, IA Conference game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Dakota lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 79 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense Northern Iowa Panthers #199 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 128 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense Northern Iowa Panthers #201 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 197 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #223 rush offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 122 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #174 pass offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg Northern Iowa Panthers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P Luke Silvernale 5 punts · 49.8 yd avg #2 P
WR Korey Tai 12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD #30 WR
DB Jonnie Wiltshire 9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #89 DB
DL Brody Thornton 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #114 DL
Northern Iowa Panthers
TE Brady McCullough 7 rec · 98 yds · 3 TD #11 TE
DB Calvin Jaworski 7 tkl · 1 INT #132 DB
LB John Powers 20 tkl #123 LB
LB Kolben Miller 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #151 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +12.7 +10.8 +1.9 #70
Northern Iowa Panthers -4.0 -2.5 -1.5 #230

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs Northern Iowa defense+12.3 pts
Northern Iowa offense vs North Dakota defense-4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 435 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.