Our side
MoneylineUND to win
ours 19%
Projected score
37–23
UND – UNI
2026-10-10 · 5:00 PM
UNI-Dome · Cedar Falls, IA
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Dakota lead
4–1
· 5 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
79 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense
Northern Iowa Panthers #199 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
128 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense
Northern Iowa Panthers #201 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
197 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #223 rush offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
122 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #174 pass offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Northern Iowa Panthers
Balanced · 57% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P
Luke Silvernale
5 punts · 49.8 yd avg
#2 P
WR
Korey Tai
12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD
#30 WR
DB
Jonnie Wiltshire
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#89 DB
DL
Brody Thornton
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#114 DL
Northern Iowa Panthers
TE
Brady McCullough
7 rec · 98 yds · 3 TD
#11 TE
DB
Calvin Jaworski
7 tkl · 1 INT
#132 DB
LB
John Powers
20 tkl
#123 LB
LB
Kolben Miller
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#151 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs Northern Iowa defense+12.3 pts
Northern Iowa offense vs North Dakota defense-4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 435 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.