← Matchups

South Dakota

· 3-0 · power +9.5 · #88
Our numberSDAK -3.0 no book has priced this game

Youngstown State

· 2-1 · power +2.8 · #141
Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win ours 44%
Projected score 35–32 SDAK – YSU
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, OH Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Youngstown State lead 8–4 · 12 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota Coyotes 129 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota Coyotes 192 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Run game edge Youngstown State Penguins 113 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game edge Youngstown State Penguins 200 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
South Dakota Coyotes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Youngstown State Penguins Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota Coyotes
P Brook Honore Jr. 9 punts · 47.1 yd avg #5 P
RB Charles Pierre Jr. 261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #27 RB
WR Brayden White 13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD #61 WR
K Bohdie Ing 4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts #15 K
Youngstown State Penguins
WR Lynn Wyche-El 18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD #16 WR
QB Beau Brungard 765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #10 QB
P Evan Anderson 5 punts · 47.0 yd avg #6 P
RB Jaden Gilbert 129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #44 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Dakota Coyotes +9.5 +8.1 +1.4 #88
Youngstown State Penguins +2.8 +8.1 -5.4 #141

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Dakota offense vs Youngstown State defense+13.4 pts
Youngstown State offense vs South Dakota defense+6.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 843 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.