Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win
ours 44%
Projected score
35–32
SDAK – YSU
2026-09-26 · 2:00 PM
Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, OH
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Youngstown State lead
8–4
· 12 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
129 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota Coyotes
192 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Run game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
113 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
200 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
South Dakota Coyotes
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota Coyotes
P
Brook Honore Jr.
9 punts · 47.1 yd avg
#5 P
RB
Charles Pierre Jr.
261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#27 RB
WR
Brayden White
13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD
#61 WR
K
Bohdie Ing
4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts
#15 K
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Dakota offense vs Youngstown State defense+13.4 pts
Youngstown State offense vs South Dakota defense+6.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 843 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.