← Matchups

Southern Illinois

· 2-1 · power +2.6 · #143
Our numberSDAK -10.7 no book has priced this game

South Dakota

· 3-0 · power +9.5 · #88
Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win ours 74%
Projected score 26–36 SIU – SDAK
2026-10-10 · 2:00 PM The DakotaDome · Vermillion, SD Conference game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota lead 7–4 · 11 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Southern Illinois Salukis 141 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Illinois Salukis 189 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota Coyotes 102 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota Coyotes 180 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Southern Illinois Salukis Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg South Dakota Coyotes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL Ibrahim Sanogo 11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL #15 DL
LB Ben Fiegel 22 tkl · 4.5 TFL #28 LB
LB Andrew Behm 18 tkl · 1.5 TFL #122 LB
WR Kyle Thomas 6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD #218 WR
South Dakota Coyotes
P Brook Honore Jr. 9 punts · 47.1 yd avg #5 P
RB Charles Pierre Jr. 261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #27 RB
WR Brayden White 13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD #61 WR
K Bohdie Ing 4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts #15 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Southern Illinois Salukis +2.6 +3.3 -0.7 #143
South Dakota Coyotes +9.5 +8.1 +1.4 #88

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Southern Illinois offense vs South Dakota defense+1.9 pts
South Dakota offense vs Southern Illinois defense+8.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 537 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.