← Matchups

South Dakota

· 3-0 · power +9.5 · #88
Our numberSDAK -0.8 no book has priced this game

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Our side
MoneylineSDAK to win ours 48%
Projected score 32–31 SDAK – SDST
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota State lead 10–3 · 13 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 30 ranks apart
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota Coyotes 66 ranks
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game even 36 ranks apart
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 123 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
South Dakota Coyotes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota Coyotes
P Brook Honore Jr. 9 punts · 47.1 yd avg #5 P
RB Charles Pierre Jr. 261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #27 RB
WR Brayden White 13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD #61 WR
K Bohdie Ing 4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts #15 K
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Dakota Coyotes +9.5 +8.1 +1.4 #88
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Dakota offense vs South Dakota State defense+8.2 pts
South Dakota State offense vs South Dakota defense+4.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.2

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).