← Matchups

Southern Illinois

· 2-1 · power +2.6 · #143
Our numberSIU -17.4 no book has priced this game

Samford

· 0-3 · power -17.0 · #359
Final SIU 22 · SAM 18 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSIU to win logged ours 17%

Our number: SIU by 14.9 — SIU to win.

Projected score 36–19 SIU – SAM
2026-09-03 · 7:00 PM Seibert Stadium · Birmingham, AL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Southern Illinois Salukis 216 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game edge Southern Illinois Salukis 147 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Run game edge Southern Illinois Salukis 101 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game even 35 ranks apart
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Southern Illinois Salukis Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg Samford Bulldogs Pass-heavy · 39% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL Ibrahim Sanogo 11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL #15 DL
LB Ben Fiegel 22 tkl · 4.5 TFL #28 LB
LB Andrew Behm 18 tkl · 1.5 TFL #122 LB
WR Kyle Thomas 6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD #218 WR
Samford Bulldogs
DB LaShon Young 21 tkl · 1 PD #53 DB
DB Jalen Nelson 25 tkl #101 DB
WR Marquise Henderson 9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD #92 WR
LB Spencer Conn 23 tkl · 2.5 TFL #90 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Southern Illinois Salukis +2.6 +3.3 -0.7 #143
Samford Bulldogs -17.0 -11.6 -5.4 #359

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Southern Illinois offense vs Samford defense+8.7 pts
Samford offense vs Southern Illinois defense-10.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.