Our side
MoneylineSDST to win
ours 43%
Projected score
32–29
SDST – SIU
2026-11-14 · 2:00 PM
Saluki Stadium · Carbondale, IL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota State lead
11–4
· 15 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
55 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #162 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
96 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense
Southern Illinois Salukis #207 pass defense
Run game
even
28 ranks apart
Southern Illinois Salukis #2 rush offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Illinois Salukis
48 ranks
Southern Illinois Salukis #45 pass offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Southern Illinois Salukis
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K
Tristan Alvano
6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts
#4 K
P
Max Pelham
10 punts · 47.9 yd avg
#3 P
TE
Greyton Gannon
5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD
#36 TE
WR
Grahm Goering
13 rec · 254 yds
#127 WR
Southern Illinois Salukis
DL
Ibrahim Sanogo
11 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#15 DL
LB
Ben Fiegel
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL
#28 LB
LB
Andrew Behm
18 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#122 LB
WR
Kyle Thomas
6 rec · 150 yds · 1 TD
#218 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Dakota State offense vs Southern Illinois defense+6.4 pts
Southern Illinois offense vs South Dakota State defense+3.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.4
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 603 mi
Altitude · context only368 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.