← Matchups

Mercyhurst

· 0-3 · power -16.3 · #357
Our numberYSU -22.6 no book has priced this game

Youngstown State

· 2-1 · power +2.8 · #141
Final MERC 10 · YSU 43 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineYSU to win logged ours 90%

Our number: YSU by 16.1 — YSU to win.

Projected score 20–43 MERC – YSU
2026-08-27 · 6:00 PM Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, OH Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Youngstown State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 31 ranks apart
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game even 29 ranks apart
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Run game edge Youngstown State Penguins 182 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game edge Youngstown State Penguins 109 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Mercyhurst Lakers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control Youngstown State Penguins Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL Zacchaeus Dixon 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #135 DL
DB Braylon Beckwith 21 tkl #182 DB
TE Camden Lewis 10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD #44 TE
P Thomas O'Neill 19 punts · 43.3 yd avg #24 P
Youngstown State Penguins
WR Lynn Wyche-El 18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD #16 WR
QB Beau Brungard 765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #10 QB
P Evan Anderson 5 punts · 47.0 yd avg #6 P
RB Jaden Gilbert 129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #44 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mercyhurst Lakers -16.3 -8.4 -7.9 #357
Youngstown State Penguins +2.8 +8.1 -5.4 #141

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mercyhurst offense vs Youngstown State defense-3.1 pts
Youngstown State offense vs Mercyhurst defense+16.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.