← Matchups

Northern Iowa

· 1-1 · power -4.0 · #230
Our numberYSU -9.8 no book has priced this game

Youngstown State

· 2-1 · power +2.8 · #141
Our side
MoneylineYSU to win ours 73%
Projected score 26–36 UNI – YSU
2026-10-17 · 6:00 PM Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, OH Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Northern Iowa lead 15–5 · 20 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Northern Iowa Panthers #223 rush offense Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Iowa Panthers 45 ranks
Northern Iowa Panthers #174 pass offense Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Run game edge Youngstown State Penguins 169 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense Northern Iowa Panthers #199 run defense
Pass game edge Youngstown State Penguins 167 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense Northern Iowa Panthers #201 pass defense
Northern Iowa Panthers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control Youngstown State Penguins Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Iowa Panthers
TE Brady McCullough 7 rec · 98 yds · 3 TD #11 TE
DB Calvin Jaworski 7 tkl · 1 INT #132 DB
LB John Powers 20 tkl #123 LB
LB Kolben Miller 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #151 LB
Youngstown State Penguins
WR Lynn Wyche-El 18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD #16 WR
QB Beau Brungard 765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #10 QB
P Evan Anderson 5 punts · 47.0 yd avg #6 P
RB Jaden Gilbert 129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #44 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Northern Iowa Panthers -4.0 -2.5 -1.5 #230
Youngstown State Penguins +2.8 +8.1 -5.4 #141

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Northern Iowa offense vs Youngstown State defense+2.9 pts
Youngstown State offense vs Northern Iowa defense+9.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 616 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.