Our side
MoneylineMTST to win
ours 97%
Projected score
14–48
CCSU – MTST
2026-09-19 · 3:00 PM
Bobcat Stadium (MT) · Bozeman, MT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
104 ranks
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #227 rush offense
Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
87 ranks
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #107 pass offense
Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana State Bobcats
192 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #208 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana State Bobcats
48 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #65 pass defense
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Montana State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
DB
Mel Jacobs
2 tkl · 1 INT
#174 DB
DB
Eric Jackson
10 tkl · 1 PD
#426 DB
DB
Deonte Douglas
13 tkl
#490 DB
WR
Michael Trovarelli
5 rec · 45 yds · 1 TD
#379 WR
Montana State Bobcats
WR
Dane Steel
13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD
#31 WR
K
Myles Sansted
5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts
#12 K
RB
Adam Jones
198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#40 RB
WR
Taco Dowler
16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD
#107 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Central Connecticut offense vs Montana State defense-9.6 pts
Montana State offense vs Central Connecticut defense+20.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,914 mi
Altitude · context only1,464 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.