← Matchups

Wagner

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -17.7 · #364
Our numberCCSU -11.2 no book has priced this game

Central Connecticut

· 0-2 · power -9.6 · #292
Our side
MoneylineCCSU to win ours 76%
Projected score 24–35 WAG – CCSU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Arute Field · New Britain, CT Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Central Connecticut lead 16–6 · 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 29 ranks apart
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense Central Connecticut Blue Devils #208 run defense
Pass game edge Central Connecticut Blue Devils 199 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense Central Connecticut Blue Devils #65 pass defense
Run game edge Wagner Seahawks 163 ranks
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #227 rush offense Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game edge Central Connecticut Blue Devils 58 ranks
Central Connecticut Blue Devils #107 pass offense Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Wagner Seahawks Run-heavy · 71% run Avg pace Central Connecticut Blue Devils Balanced · 49% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wagner Seahawks
DB Julio Tatis 7 tkl · 1 INT #163 DB
DL Jordan Gaston 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #435 DL
WR Zion Fowler-El 16 rec · 143 yds #291 WR
DB Shamar Williams 10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #503 DB
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
DB Mel Jacobs 2 tkl · 1 INT #174 DB
DB Eric Jackson 10 tkl · 1 PD #426 DB
DB Deonte Douglas 13 tkl #490 DB
WR Michael Trovarelli 5 rec · 45 yds · 1 TD #379 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wagner Seahawks -17.7 -10.9 -6.8 #364
Central Connecticut Blue Devils -9.6 -0.2 -9.4 #292

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wagner offense vs Central Connecticut defense-1.5 pts
Central Connecticut offense vs Wagner defense+6.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.