Our side
MoneylineLIU to win
ours 59%
Projected score
24–28
MERC – LIU
2026-10-03 · 12:00 PM
Shark Stadium · Brookville, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercyhurst lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Long Island University Sharks
148 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense
Long Island University Sharks #72 run defense
Pass game
edge Long Island University Sharks
173 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense
Long Island University Sharks #17 pass defense
Run game
even
43 ranks apart
Long Island University Sharks #169 rush offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercyhurst Lakers
98 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #241 pass offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Mercyhurst Lakers
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
Long Island University Sharks
Run-heavy · 69% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL
Zacchaeus Dixon
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#135 DL
DB
Braylon Beckwith
21 tkl
#182 DB
TE
Camden Lewis
10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD
#44 TE
P
Thomas O'Neill
19 punts · 43.3 yd avg
#24 P
Long Island University Sharks
LB
Rafael Fasolino
25 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#23 LB
DB
Ryan Maxwell
21 tkl · 2 PD
#57 DB
DL
Rodney Mills
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#145 DL
DL
Quay Wright
3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#343 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mercyhurst offense vs Long Island University defense-4.1 pts
Long Island University offense vs Mercyhurst defense-2.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).