Our side
MoneylineWAG to win
ours 52%
Projected score
25–26
LIU – WAG
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium · Staten Island, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Long Island University lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2019
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Wagner Seahawks
105 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #169 rush offense
Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game
edge Wagner Seahawks
76 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #241 pass offense
Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Run game
edge Long Island University Sharks
165 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense
Long Island University Sharks #72 run defense
Pass game
edge Long Island University Sharks
247 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense
Long Island University Sharks #17 pass defense
Long Island University Sharks
Run-heavy · 69% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Wagner Seahawks
Run-heavy · 71% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Long Island University Sharks
LB
Rafael Fasolino
25 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#23 LB
DB
Ryan Maxwell
21 tkl · 2 PD
#57 DB
DL
Rodney Mills
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#145 DL
DL
Quay Wright
3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#343 DL
Wagner Seahawks
DB
Julio Tatis
7 tkl · 1 INT
#163 DB
DL
Jordan Gaston
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#435 DL
WR
Zion Fowler-El
16 rec · 143 yds
#291 WR
DB
Shamar Williams
10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#503 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Long Island University offense vs Wagner defense-3.7 pts
Wagner offense vs Long Island University defense-6.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).