← Matchups

Long Island University

· 0-3 · power -14.8 · #343
Our numberLIU -2.6 no book has priced this game

New Haven

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -20.9 · #380
Our side
MoneylineLIU to win ours 44%
Projected score 28–26 LIU – NHVN
2026-11-07 · 12:00 PM Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium · West Haven, CT Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Long Island University lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge New Haven Chargers 85 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #169 rush offense New Haven Chargers #84 run defense
Pass game edge New Haven Chargers 150 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #241 pass offense New Haven Chargers #91 pass defense
Run game edge Long Island University Sharks 91 ranks
New Haven Chargers #163 rush offense Long Island University Sharks #72 run defense
Pass game edge Long Island University Sharks 83 ranks
New Haven Chargers #100 pass offense Long Island University Sharks #17 pass defense
Long Island University Sharks Run-heavy · 69% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg New Haven Chargers Balanced · 51% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Long Island University Sharks
LB Rafael Fasolino 25 tkl · 3.0 TFL #23 LB
DB Ryan Maxwell 21 tkl · 2 PD #57 DB
DL Rodney Mills 5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #145 DL
DL Quay Wright 3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #343 DL
New Haven Chargers
DB Myles Hansford 14 tkl · 2 PD #196 DB
DL Tyler Hammel 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #273 DL
DB Mason Taylor 20 tkl #294 DB
P Joe Fragale 14 punts · 41.5 yd avg #33 P

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Long Island University Sharks -14.8 -10.5 -4.3 #343
New Haven Chargers -20.9 -9.8 -11.1 #380

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Long Island University offense vs New Haven defense+0.6 pts
New Haven offense vs Long Island University defense-5.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.5
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.