Our side
MoneylineRMU to win
ours 55%
Projected score
25–27
NORF – RMU
2026-10-03 · 2:00 PM
Joe Walton Stadium · Moon Township, PA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
66 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense
Robert Morris Colonials #161 run defense
Pass game
edge Robert Morris Colonials
70 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense
Robert Morris Colonials #94 pass defense
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
124 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #260 rush offense
Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game
even
35 ranks apart
Robert Morris Colonials #220 pass offense
Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Norfolk State Spartans
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Robert Morris Colonials
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Norfolk State Spartans
DB
Josiah Davis
6 tkl · 2 INT
#61 DB
DB
Jordan Saunders
20 tkl · 1 INT
#121 DB
LB
Brendan Thompson
23 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#141 LB
DL
Eugene Allen IV
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#330 DL
Robert Morris Colonials
WR
Galen Combs
15 rec · 307 yds · 5 TD
#10 WR
DL
Asher Wilson
14 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#30 DL
LB
Amanuel Dickson
23 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#40 LB
DL
David Johnson
5 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#362 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Norfolk State offense vs Robert Morris defense-4.3 pts
Robert Morris offense vs Norfolk State defense-3.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.3
Altitude · context only346 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.