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New Haven

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -20.9 · #380
Our numberRMU -15.5 no book has priced this game

Robert Morris

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -9.0 · #282
Our side
MoneylineRMU to win ours 83%
Projected score 18–33 NHVN – RMU
2026-10-17 · 12:00 PM Joe Walton Stadium · Moon Township, PA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 2 ranks apart
New Haven Chargers #163 rush offense Robert Morris Colonials #161 run defense
Pass game even 6 ranks apart
New Haven Chargers #100 pass offense Robert Morris Colonials #94 pass defense
Run game edge New Haven Chargers 176 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #260 rush offense New Haven Chargers #84 run defense
Pass game edge New Haven Chargers 129 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #220 pass offense New Haven Chargers #91 pass defense
New Haven Chargers Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Robert Morris Colonials Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
New Haven Chargers
DB Myles Hansford 14 tkl · 2 PD #196 DB
DL Tyler Hammel 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #273 DL
DB Mason Taylor 20 tkl #294 DB
P Joe Fragale 14 punts · 41.5 yd avg #33 P
Robert Morris Colonials
WR Galen Combs 15 rec · 307 yds · 5 TD #10 WR
DL Asher Wilson 14 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #30 DL
LB Amanuel Dickson 23 tkl · 3.5 TFL #40 LB
DL David Johnson 5 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL #362 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
New Haven Chargers -20.9 -9.8 -11.1 #380
Robert Morris Colonials -9.0 -9.9 +0.9 #282

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
New Haven offense vs Robert Morris defense-10.7 pts
Robert Morris offense vs New Haven defense+1.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.2
Altitude · context only346 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.