Our side
MoneylineRMU to win
ours 83%
Projected score
18–33
NHVN – RMU
2026-10-17 · 12:00 PM
Joe Walton Stadium · Moon Township, PA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
New Haven Chargers #163 rush offense
Robert Morris Colonials #161 run defense
Pass game
even
6 ranks apart
New Haven Chargers #100 pass offense
Robert Morris Colonials #94 pass defense
Run game
edge New Haven Chargers
176 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #260 rush offense
New Haven Chargers #84 run defense
Pass game
edge New Haven Chargers
129 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #220 pass offense
New Haven Chargers #91 pass defense
New Haven Chargers
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Robert Morris Colonials
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Haven Chargers
DB
Myles Hansford
14 tkl · 2 PD
#196 DB
DL
Tyler Hammel
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#273 DL
DB
Mason Taylor
20 tkl
#294 DB
P
Joe Fragale
14 punts · 41.5 yd avg
#33 P
Robert Morris Colonials
WR
Galen Combs
15 rec · 307 yds · 5 TD
#10 WR
DL
Asher Wilson
14 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#30 DL
LB
Amanuel Dickson
23 tkl · 3.5 TFL
#40 LB
DL
David Johnson
5 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#362 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Haven offense vs Robert Morris defense-10.7 pts
Robert Morris offense vs New Haven defense+1.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.2
Altitude · context only346 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.