Our side
MoneylineSTO to win
ours 63%
Projected score
21–26
WAG – STO
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM
W.B. Mason Stadium · North Easton, MA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stonehill and Wagner split 6 (3–3)
· 6 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
44 ranks apart
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense
Stonehill Skyhawks #193 run defense
Pass game
edge Stonehill Skyhawks
243 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense
Stonehill Skyhawks #21 pass defense
Run game
edge Wagner Seahawks
185 ranks
Stonehill Skyhawks #249 rush offense
Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game
even
37 ranks apart
Stonehill Skyhawks #202 pass offense
Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Wagner Seahawks
Run-heavy · 71% run
Avg pace
Stonehill Skyhawks
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Wagner Seahawks
DB
Julio Tatis
7 tkl · 1 INT
#163 DB
DL
Jordan Gaston
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#435 DL
WR
Zion Fowler-El
16 rec · 143 yds
#291 WR
DB
Shamar Williams
10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#503 DB
Stonehill Skyhawks
TE
Cole Clarke
11 rec · 169 yds · 1 TD
#26 TE
DL
Christopher Gill
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#261 DL
LB
Caden Henritzy
21 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#163 LB
DB
Mo Seide
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#267 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Wagner offense vs Stonehill defense-8.7 pts
Stonehill offense vs Wagner defense-8.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).