Our side
MoneylineMRMK to win
ours 68%
Projected score
20–28
WAG – MRMK
2026-10-31 · 12:00 PM
Duane Stadium · North Andover, MA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Merrimack lead
3–1
· 4 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Merrimack Warriors
88 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense
Merrimack Warriors #149 run defense
Pass game
edge Merrimack Warriors
81 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense
Merrimack Warriors #183 pass defense
Run game
even
35 ranks apart
Merrimack Warriors #99 rush offense
Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game
edge Wagner Seahawks
68 ranks
Merrimack Warriors #233 pass offense
Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Wagner Seahawks
Run-heavy · 71% run
Avg pace
Merrimack Warriors
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Wagner Seahawks
DB
Julio Tatis
7 tkl · 1 INT
#163 DB
DL
Jordan Gaston
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#435 DL
WR
Zion Fowler-El
16 rec · 143 yds
#291 WR
DB
Shamar Williams
10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#503 DB
Merrimack Warriors
DB
Danny Simms
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#27 DB
DB
Bertin Placide
7 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#218 DB
DL
Dwayne Green Jr
9 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#317 DL
DB
Juice Ricks
4 tkl · 1 INT
#303 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Wagner offense vs Merrimack defense-9.2 pts
Merrimack offense vs Wagner defense-5.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+6.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).