Our side
MoneylineMERC to win
ours 56%
Projected score
26–28
WAG – MERC
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD
Saxon Stadium · Erie, PA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercyhurst lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
25 ranks apart
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercyhurst Lakers
121 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Run game
edge Wagner Seahawks
156 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense
Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game
even
25 ranks apart
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense
Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Wagner Seahawks
Run-heavy · 71% run
Avg pace
Mercyhurst Lakers
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Wagner Seahawks
DB
Julio Tatis
7 tkl · 1 INT
#163 DB
DL
Jordan Gaston
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#435 DL
WR
Zion Fowler-El
16 rec · 143 yds
#291 WR
DB
Shamar Williams
10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#503 DB
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL
Zacchaeus Dixon
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#135 DL
DB
Braylon Beckwith
21 tkl
#182 DB
TE
Camden Lewis
10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD
#44 TE
P
Thomas O'Neill
19 punts · 43.3 yd avg
#24 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Wagner offense vs Mercyhurst defense-3.0 pts
Mercyhurst offense vs Wagner defense-1.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).