Our side
MoneylineMORG to win
ours 51%
Projected score
25–25
HOW – MORG
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Hughes Stadium (MD) · Baltimore, MD
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Morgan State lead
12–10
· 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
Howard Bison #150 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
edge Morgan State Bears
116 ranks
Howard Bison #246 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Run game
edge Howard Bison
64 ranks
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
Howard Bison #100 run defense
Pass game
edge Howard Bison
108 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
Howard Bison #118 pass defense
Howard Bison
Balanced · 57% run
Ball-control
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Howard Bison
LB
Rodney Roane
16 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#56 LB
DB
Ben Chandler IV
11 tkl · 4 PD
#164 DB
LB
Aidan Foster
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#105 LB
DB
Kaleb Gallop
21 tkl
#199 DB
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Howard offense vs Morgan State defense-3.6 pts
Morgan State offense vs Howard defense-7.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).