← Matchups

Howard

· 1-2 · power -10.8 · #307
Our numberNORF -5.5 no book has priced this game

Norfolk State

· 1-2 · power -9.5 · #291
Our side
MoneylineNORF to win ours 63%
Projected score 24–30 HOW – NORF
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM William "Dick" Price Stadium · Norfolk, VA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Howard and Norfolk State split 20 (10–10) · 20 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 14 ranks apart
Howard Bison #150 rush offense Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game edge Norfolk State Spartans 61 ranks
Howard Bison #246 pass offense Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Run game even 5 ranks apart
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense Howard Bison #100 run defense
Pass game edge Howard Bison 46 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense Howard Bison #118 pass defense
Howard Bison Balanced · 57% run Ball-control Norfolk State Spartans Balanced · 48% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Howard Bison
LB Rodney Roane 16 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #56 LB
DB Ben Chandler IV 11 tkl · 4 PD #164 DB
LB Aidan Foster 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #105 LB
DB Kaleb Gallop 21 tkl #199 DB
Norfolk State Spartans
DB Josiah Davis 6 tkl · 2 INT #61 DB
DB Jordan Saunders 20 tkl · 1 INT #121 DB
LB Brendan Thompson 23 tkl · 2.0 TFL #141 LB
DL Eugene Allen IV 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #330 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Howard Bison -10.8 -8.2 -2.6 #307
Norfolk State Spartans -9.5 -3.3 -6.2 #291

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Howard offense vs Norfolk State defense-2.1 pts
Norfolk State offense vs Howard defense-0.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.2

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).