Our side
MoneylineVILL to win
ours 80%
Projected score
19–33
MORG – VILL
2026-10-03 · 1:00 PM
Villanova Stadium · Philadelphia, PA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
125 ranks
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
171 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
59 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
48 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morgan State offense vs Villanova defense-9.7 pts
Villanova offense vs Morgan State defense+1.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+14.6
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.