← Matchups

South Carolina State

· 3-0 · power -1.6 · #192
Our numberSCST -16.1 no book has priced this game

Morgan State

· 2-1 · power -14.9 · #344
Our side
MoneylineSCST to win ours 16%
Projected score 37–21 SCST – MORG
2026-10-29 · 7:00 PM Hughes Stadium (MD) · Baltimore, MD Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Carolina State lead 15–3 · 18 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Morgan State Bears 138 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #251 rush offense Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 62 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #68 pass offense Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Run game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 128 ranks
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #36 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 153 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #73 pass defense
South Carolina State Bulldogs Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Morgan State Bears Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Carolina State Bulldogs
RB Mason Pickett-Hicks 417 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #11 RB
DL Jordan Dollard 11 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL #50 DL
DL Ka Von Chisolm 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL #101 DL
DL Jayden Fuller 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #120 DL
Morgan State Bears
DL Donovan Moyer 11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #70 DL
DB Josiah Blake 11 tkl · 1 PD #145 DB
WR Justin Perry 13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD #231 WR
RB Jordan Barnett 173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #165 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Carolina State Bulldogs -1.6 +3.7 -5.3 #192
Morgan State Bears -14.9 -10.3 -4.6 #344

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Carolina State offense vs Morgan State defense+8.3 pts
Morgan State offense vs South Carolina State defense-5.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-5.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 468 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.