Our side
MoneylineSCST to win
ours 16%
Projected score
37–21
SCST – MORG
2026-10-29 · 7:00 PM
Hughes Stadium (MD) · Baltimore, MD
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Carolina State lead
15–3
· 18 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Morgan State Bears
138 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #251 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
edge South Carolina State Bulldogs
62 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #68 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Run game
edge South Carolina State Bulldogs
128 ranks
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
South Carolina State Bulldogs #36 run defense
Pass game
edge South Carolina State Bulldogs
153 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
South Carolina State Bulldogs #73 pass defense
South Carolina State Bulldogs
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Carolina State Bulldogs
RB
Mason Pickett-Hicks
417 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#11 RB
DL
Jordan Dollard
11 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#50 DL
DL
Ka Von Chisolm
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#101 DL
DL
Jayden Fuller
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#120 DL
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Carolina State offense vs Morgan State defense+8.3 pts
Morgan State offense vs South Carolina State defense-5.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-5.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 468 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.