Our side
MoneylineNORF to win
ours 44%
Projected score
29–26
NORF – MORG
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Hughes Stadium (MD) · Baltimore, MD
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Norfolk State lead
15–7
· 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
18 ranks apart
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
even
34 ranks apart
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Run game
even
28 ranks apart
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game
even
41 ranks apart
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Norfolk State Spartans
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Norfolk State Spartans
DB
Josiah Davis
6 tkl · 2 INT
#61 DB
DB
Jordan Saunders
20 tkl · 1 INT
#121 DB
LB
Brendan Thompson
23 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#141 LB
DL
Eugene Allen IV
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#330 DL
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Norfolk State offense vs Morgan State defense+1.3 pts
Morgan State offense vs Norfolk State defense-4.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-2.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).