Our side
MoneylineNCCU to win
ours 63%
Projected score
24–30
MORG – NCCU
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM
O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium · Durham, NC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina Central lead
8–4
· 12 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
19 ranks apart
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
123 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
Run game
edge Morgan State Bears
76 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
87 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
North Carolina Central Eagles
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL
Zarion Walters
17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#12 DL
DB
Joshua Truesdale
19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#88 DB
RB
Plez Lawrence
264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#92 RB
DB
Jakarri Martin II
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#231 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morgan State offense vs North Carolina Central defense-3.4 pts
North Carolina Central offense vs Morgan State defense-0.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+6.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).