← Matchups

Norfolk State

· 1-2 · power -9.5 · #291
Our numberSCST -15.8 no book has priced this game

South Carolina State

· 3-0 · power -1.6 · #192
Our side
MoneylineSCST to win ours 84%
Projected score 23–39 NORF – SCST
2026-10-24 · 1:30 PM Oliver C. Dawson Stadium · Orangeburg, SC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Carolina State lead 16–5 · 21 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 59 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #36 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 91 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #73 pass defense
Run game edge Norfolk State Spartans 115 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #251 rush offense Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 117 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #68 pass offense Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Norfolk State Spartans Balanced · 48% run Ball-control South Carolina State Bulldogs Balanced · 54% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Norfolk State Spartans
DB Josiah Davis 6 tkl · 2 INT #61 DB
DB Jordan Saunders 20 tkl · 1 INT #121 DB
LB Brendan Thompson 23 tkl · 2.0 TFL #141 LB
DL Eugene Allen IV 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #330 DL
South Carolina State Bulldogs
RB Mason Pickett-Hicks 417 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #11 RB
DL Jordan Dollard 11 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL #50 DL
DL Ka Von Chisolm 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL #101 DL
DL Jayden Fuller 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #120 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Norfolk State Spartans -9.5 -3.3 -6.2 #291
South Carolina State Bulldogs -1.6 +3.7 -5.3 #192

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Norfolk State offense vs South Carolina State defense+2.0 pts
South Carolina State offense vs Norfolk State defense+9.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+4.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+11.1

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).