Final
NCCU 30 · TXSO 42
ML L
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineNCCU to win logged
ours 39%
Our number: NCCU by 5.9 — NCCU to win.
Projected score
32–27
NCCU – TXSO
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM
Shell Energy Stadium · Houston, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
73 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense
Texas Southern Tigers #116 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
105 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense
Texas Southern Tigers #148 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Southern Tigers
48 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #97 rush offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
101 ranks
Texas Southern Tigers #204 pass offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Texas Southern Tigers
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL
Zarion Walters
17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#12 DL
DB
Joshua Truesdale
19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#88 DB
RB
Plez Lawrence
264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#92 RB
DB
Jakarri Martin II
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#231 DB
Texas Southern Tigers
LB
Donovan Jones
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#76 LB
DL
Jordan Thompson
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#143 DL
RB
Athean Renfro Jr.
293 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#63 RB
DL
Thurman Rayborn
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#176 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs Texas Southern defense+6.5 pts
Texas Southern offense vs North Carolina Central defense-1.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,046 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.