← Matchups

Elizabeth City State

· 0-1 · power -17.6 · #363

Our numberNCCU -8.8 ~~no book has priced this game~~

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318

Final ELIZ 6 · NCCU 27 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineNCCU to win logged ours 69%

Our number: NCCU by 8.1 — NCCU to win.

Projected score 22–30 ELIZ – NCCU

2026-09-05 · 6:00 PM O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium · Durham, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Carolina Central lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2007

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Elizabeth City State Vikings

DL Jaevon Branch 11 tkl · 2.0 TFL #156 DL

DL Sir'Sean Ingram 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #177 DL

DL John Earley 10 tkl #489 DL

DL Solomon Ford 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #539 DL

North Carolina Central Eagles

DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL

DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB

RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB

DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Elizabeth City State Vikings	-17.6	-13.8	-3.8	#363
North Carolina Central Eagles	-11.9	-5.0	-6.9	#318

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Elizabeth City State offense vs North Carolina Central defense-7.0 pts

North Carolina Central offense vs Elizabeth City State defense-1.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.