Our side
MoneylineW&M to win
ours 42%
Projected score
31–28
W&M – NCCU
2026-10-10 · 1:00 PM
O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium · Durham, NC
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
41 ranks apart
William & Mary Tribe #104 rush offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
William & Mary Tribe #102 pass offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
Run game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
49 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense
William & Mary Tribe #238 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
170 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense
William & Mary Tribe #213 pass defense
William & Mary Tribe
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 56 rush ypg
North Carolina Central Eagles
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
William & Mary Tribe
DL
Nathaniel McDonald
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#37 DL
K
Max Lipinski
8 FG · 5 XP · 29 pts
#13 K
DB
Trevon Cannon
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#130 DB
DB
David Roulley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#157 DB
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL
Zarion Walters
17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#12 DL
DB
Joshua Truesdale
19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#88 DB
RB
Plez Lawrence
264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#92 RB
DB
Jakarri Martin II
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#231 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
William & Mary offense vs North Carolina Central defense+6.3 pts
North Carolina Central offense vs William & Mary defense-0.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).