← Matchups

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318
Our numberSCST -17.9 no book has priced this game

South Carolina State

· 3-0 · power -1.6 · #192
Our side
MoneylineSCST to win ours 87%
Projected score 22–40 NCCU – SCST
2026-11-14 · 1:30 PM Oliver C. Dawson Stadium · Orangeburg, SC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Carolina State lead 7–4 · 11 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Carolina State Bulldogs 153 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #36 run defense
Pass game even 30 ranks apart
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense South Carolina State Bulldogs #73 pass defense
Run game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 106 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #251 rush offense North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game even 35 ranks apart
South Carolina State Bulldogs #68 pass offense North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control South Carolina State Bulldogs Balanced · 54% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL
DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB
RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB
DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB
South Carolina State Bulldogs
RB Mason Pickett-Hicks 417 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #11 RB
DL Jordan Dollard 11 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL #50 DL
DL Ka Von Chisolm 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL #101 DL
DL Jayden Fuller 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #120 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Central Eagles -11.9 -5.0 -6.9 #318
South Carolina State Bulldogs -1.6 +3.7 -5.3 #192

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs South Carolina State defense+0.3 pts
South Carolina State offense vs North Carolina Central defense+10.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+4.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.6

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).