Our side
MoneylineSCST to win
ours 90%
Projected score
22–42
CIT – SCST
2026-10-03 · 2:00 PM
Oliver C. Dawson Stadium · Orangeburg, SC
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Carolina State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Carolina State Bulldogs
167 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense
South Carolina State Bulldogs #36 run defense
Pass game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
47 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense
South Carolina State Bulldogs #73 pass defense
Run game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
100 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #251 rush offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game
edge South Carolina State Bulldogs
191 ranks
South Carolina State Bulldogs #68 pass offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
The Citadel Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 81% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
South Carolina State Bulldogs
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB
Zyion Brown
28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#19 LB
RB
Gavin Garcia
289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#21 RB
DB
J'hari Mosley
18 tkl · 1 INT
#150 DB
RB
Sebastien Boyle
94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#137 RB
South Carolina State Bulldogs
RB
Mason Pickett-Hicks
417 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec
#11 RB
DL
Jordan Dollard
11 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#50 DL
DL
Ka Von Chisolm
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#101 DL
DL
Jayden Fuller
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#120 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
The Citadel offense vs South Carolina State defense+1.3 pts
South Carolina State offense vs The Citadel defense+14.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+4.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+16.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).