Our side
MoneylineCOLG to win
ours 61%
Projected score
26–30
W&M – COLG
2026-10-31 · 1:00 PM
Andy Kerr Stadium · Hamilton, NY
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Colgate and William & Mary split 6 (3–3)
· 6 meetings since 1973
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge William & Mary Tribe
96 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #104 rush offense
Colgate Raiders #200 run defense
Pass game
edge William & Mary Tribe
116 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #102 pass offense
Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense
Run game
edge Colgate Raiders
149 ranks
Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense
William & Mary Tribe #238 run defense
Pass game
edge Colgate Raiders
101 ranks
Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense
William & Mary Tribe #213 pass defense
William & Mary Tribe
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 56 rush ypg
Colgate Raiders
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
William & Mary Tribe
DL
Nathaniel McDonald
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#37 DL
K
Max Lipinski
8 FG · 5 XP · 29 pts
#13 K
DB
Trevon Cannon
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#130 DB
DB
David Roulley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#157 DB
Colgate Raiders
LB
Christian Magliacano
20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#20 LB
RB
Danny Shaban
395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec
#15 RB
WR
Matt Fogler
13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#52 WR
DB
Tymir Wynn
14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#160 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
William & Mary offense vs Colgate defense+0.6 pts
Colgate offense vs William & Mary defense+0.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+2.3
Altitude · context only310 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.